Thoughts below are my own and not personal financial advice. I’m just some random person on the internet.
- Mortgage Rates: With mortgage rates dropping below 7% for the first time since August, this could signal a potential uptick in the real estate market. Consider investments in real estate-related stocks, REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), or homebuilders.
- Crypto Ledger Cold Wallet Exploit: The recent exploit on Ledger’s crypto wallets highlights vulnerabilities in the crypto infrastructure. This could lead to a short-term decline in confidence in cryptocurrencies. As a cautious move, consider reducing exposure to crypto or diversifying within the sector.
- GPT 4.5 Rumors: Keep an eye on developments regarding GPT 4.5. While rumors suggest advancements, the market might react positively to any official announcements from OpenAI. Invest cautiously in tech stocks related to AI and natural language processing, considering the potential impact of improved language models.
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: As the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 3.9%, consider assessing your bond portfolio. Higher yields might impact certain sectors negatively, such as growth stocks, and favor others, like financials. Monitor leveraged ETFs like $TMF carefully due to increased risk.
- SEC and Bitcoin ETF: The SEC’s stance on Bitcoin ETFs may influence crypto-related investments. Monitor this closely, as regulatory decisions often impact crypto markets significantly.
- GM Cruise Layoffs: The layoffs at GM Cruise might indicate challenges in the autonomous vehicle sector. This could impact investments in companies focusing on autonomous driving technology. Reassess exposure to these stocks considering potential setbacks in development.
- End of “Higher for Longer”: Bloomberg’s assessment of the Fed’s decision could signal a shift in financial conditions. Consider how this might affect various sectors, especially those sensitive to interest rates, such as housing and banking.
- Ledger Crypto Hack: The security breach could lead to increased demand for safer crypto investment vehicles like ETFs. Monitor developments in this space and consider investments in secure crypto-related instruments.
- European Central Bank and Global Economy: Monitor the ECB’s approach and its impact on global markets. Consider how European economic changes might influence international investments.
- Retail Sales & Import/Export Prices: Stronger retail sales and controlled import/export prices could signal a healthy economy. Consider consumer discretionary stocks and companies affected by import/export dynamics.
Stock positions:
- Buy Apple (AAPL). It hit a new all-time high today and remains a strong mega cap stock pick amid the potential economic recovery. Specifically, I would dollar-cost average into a long-term position over the next few months.
- Trim exposure to Adobe (ADBE). It fell after lowering guidance for Q1 and 2024, and growth may be constrained until it can get more traction with AI. I would close any long positions and consider puts.
- OpenDoor (OPEN) and Enphase (ENPH) would both be candidates for buying call options to benefit from their strong moves higher on rate cut expectations. But I would be cautious on aggressive bets here.
Bond positions:
- Consider increasing exposure to longer dated Treasury bonds, as yields are dropping and Jeffrey Gundlach predicts significant upside here. Specifically, I would buy the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). There could be 25%+ upside in bonds as we near recession and the yield curve normalizes.
Always perform further research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information provided is based on current data and opinions, and market conditions can change rapidly.